The Horwath HTL Hotel Performance Confidence Indicator survey for the fourth quarter of 2009 paints a mixed picture as far as Occupancy, Average Room Rate Performance and Total Revenue are concerned.
Overall, 53 % of accommodation establishments expect a decrease in Occupancy, with only 19 % expecting an increase. Average Room rate is expected to increase for 51 % of establishments, while almost equal numbers of establishments said that their Total Revenue would increase, decrease or stay the same.
Comparing their performance in the first 8 months of this year with that of last year for the same period, Occupancy had clearly declined, by as much as 15 %, for 74 % of all establishments interviewed. Worst hit were 4-star establishments, with 21 % having lost 15 % or more in occupancy. In the Western Cape only 19 % of establishments expected an increase in the 4th quarter of this year. Occupancy is more likely to increase in lower graded establishments in this province.
Average Room Rates increased for 59 % of establishments, by up 5 % for a third of all establishments, and by up to 5 – 15 % for a further 26 % of establishments. Five-star establishments, and the ones with 151 rooms or more, did better than their 3-/4-star smaller counterparts on this measure. In the Western Cape 56 % of hoteliers expected the Average Room Rate to increase, especially the lower graded hotels.
Total Revenue decreased for 50 % of the establishments, especially for 3 and 5-star hotels. Those with an increased revenue did not see an increase of more than 5 % on a year ago, but small boutique hotels saw their revenue increase by as much as 15 %.
The study was conducted amongst 104 hotels throughout South Africa. If Whale Cottage Camps Bay is a sample of one, a very different picture emerges for guest houses – November and December are almost fully booked, thanks to the FIFA Final Draw on 4 December, and the New Year period.
Chris von Ulmenstein, Whale Cottage Portfolio : www.whalecottage.com
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Its good things are looking up in these times.