For the first time since its introduction in 2010, the Tourism Business Council of South Africa FNB Tourism Business Index has reached its highest score and exceeded 100, the norm level, for the second time, with a score of 104 measured for the last quarter of 2012, a significant improvement on the 89 score at its inception two years prior. Tourism business confidence for 2013 is forecast to be similar to 2012.
The Tourism Business Index (TBI) was introduced in the last quarter of 2010, and its 89 score, against the norm of 100, confirmed what we all knew, namely that the tourism industry was in serious trouble just three months after the 2010 World Cup. The lowest TBI was measured in the second quarter of 2011, with a score of 75, the tourism industry at that time operating at only 75 % of its potential! The latest score of 104, marginally up from the 101 measured in the third quarter of 2012, hints at a small upward movement in tourism business confidence. The increased index was reported to come from the increase in domestic tourism, rather than from international tourist bookings.
Tourism Business Council of South Africa Chairman Mavuse Msimang commented on the most recent index, stating that ‘the latest index results provided relief for a sector that has been through two very tough years….. and is a clear indication of the extent to which business is recovering from the recessionary impact and excess of supply it suffered post the 2010 Soccer World Cup’. One would have thought that it was the low demand rather than accommodation oversupply that has been responsible for the poor tourism performance in the past two years!
The Tourism Business Index is a national measure of current and future performance of the tourism and travel industry, and sub-sectors within the sector.
One hopes that the forthcoming winter will not be as devastating as the last two have been. It is too early to forecast the winter performance. Cape Town and the Western Cape are still experiencing summer seasonality, with two good weeks and two average weeks per month since October. Only February looks close to fully booked, while March looks very quiet to date! A TBI at around 100 only indicates that the tourism industry is still far from the good times it last experienced in 2007!
Chris von Ulmenstein, Whale Cottage Portfolio: www.whalecottage.com Twitter: @Whale Cottage
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