The latest Euromonitor International report on the global tourism industry predicts that international arrivals will ‘slow down 5,8%’, according to Cape Town Tourism, yet will see arrivals exceed 1 billion persons by 2012. The forecast is that this figure will increase to 1,8 billion by 2030.
The report is based on a prediction of a ‘double dip recession’, in Europe in particular. GDP is expected to grow by 4% globally this year, down by 1,1 percentage points from 2010, caused by higher fuel prices and taxes, and political and social unrest. ‘Across all markets, online marketing is considered to be the most significant growth area in the long term, with applications on social media and mobile devices very lucrative in the medium-term’, writes Cape Town Tourism.
The report also contains a number of global travel trends, highlighting how different countries and regions are adapting to the international downturn:
* Mystery trips: In America the need for affordable yet exciting travel has led to the development of mystery trips, whereby tourists bid on packages with an unknown destination. A Smartphone reveals a daily itinerary, based on a pre-determined budget. Prices are 50 % lower, as the travel products offered are excess stock, heavily discounted.
* Rent a garden: In the UK the outlook for travel ‘remains bleak with a stagnant economy’, as we reported yesterday. This market is seeking greater value, and alternate affordable accommodation, including campsites and hostels. Campsinmygarden.com lists sites renting out their gardens for camping. Overcharging by London hotels for the 2012 Olympic Games is noticeable, and travellers are avoiding these. UK hotel growth fell by 5% last year, is expected to remain stable this year, and grow by 2 % next year, showing the small effect that the Olympics is likely to have on the UK hotel accommodation industry, an experience similar to that during the World Cup in South Africa.
* Luxury without guilt: European travellers are focusing on ‘responsible and sustainable travel’, and travelers are expecting own produce to be grown by hotels and involvement in community produce growing initiatives. Europe’s collective GDP is estimated to fall slightly from 1,8% in 2010 to 1,4% in 2012.
* Branding and Rebranding: Given the political turmoil, the Middle East is looking to rebranding, to change perceptions about the region, which has seen a 6% drop in arrivals this year, compared to 12 % growth last year.
* Mobile commerce: Kenya is focusing on booking travel via mobile phones, its M-PESA system enabling Kenyans without bank accounts to pay for travel and other purchases via their phones. GDP growth in Africa is estimated at 5% for this year.
* Growing influence of Asia: China will become increasingly dominant as a source market, with a 20 % growth in travel anticipated in the next five years. International hotel brands are partnering with Chinese companies, and customising their brands to suit the market, both in China, and also in other regions, to make them attractive to Chinese travellers. Inter-Asia travel is growing too.
* ‘Gamification’: Started in the USA, consumers are encouraged to enter competitions, sharing their travel experiences, photographs and videos, in exchange for points, badges and gifts. The ‘Ireland Town’ game on Facebook, by Tourism Ireland, is expected to attract 60 million potential travellers.
* Global village: Increasingly hotels are using Social Media to gain followers and friends, to create awareness, build loyalty, and generate bookings.
Chris von Ulmenstein, Whale Cottage Portfolio: www.whalecottage.com Twitter: @WhaleCottage