Tag Archives: Tourism Business Index

Tourism Business Index drops sharply in second quarter 2014!

TourismIt was a shock to see that, after a steady improvement in Tourism Confidence in the past few quarters, it has done an about-turn and declined in the second quarter of this year, as reflected in the latest reading of the Tourism Business Council of South Africa FNB Tourism Business Index.

The Tourism Business Index measured 94.7 for the past three months, below the normal average of 100, and far below the 112,4 reading of the first quarter of this year.   Whilst the forecast for the second quarter Tourism Index in the first quarter was 103, actual confidence was ten points lower than expected.  The lower Tourism Index is attributed to travel agents, transport operators, and conference centres, a far more pessimistic tourism segment, in that its average Index was only 86,2, an extreme contrast to the Accommodation segment, which more optimistically measured 105,8.

The Tourism Business Council expressed its concern about the obstacles to the growth in the Tourism industry, including Continue reading →

Tourism industry enjoys good 1st quarter 2013!

Both the Bureau of Economic Research and the Tourism Business Council of South Africa (TBCSA) FNB Tourism Business Index reflect that the first three months of this year showed an improvement in the confidence level for the South African tourism industry. While Cape restaurants would agree, the confidence may not have been shared by the Cape accommodation industry, who still cannot see a significant improvement in their occupancy levels, and dread the early arrival of the winter season.

The Bureau of Market Research released its results for the first quarter of this year last week, and showed a 7% growth in the volume of Accommodation business, with a very positive expectation of an 11% growth rate in the second quarter – this contrasted strongly with the 16% decline reported for the last quarter of 2012. Since 2009 the Bureau had measured declining volumes of Accommodation business, the first sign of a turn around being measured in the first and third quarters of 2012, but with declines in the second and fourth quarters of the same year, demonstrating how variable the growth is and how susceptible it is to global recessionary influences.  Business confidence in the Accommodation sector increased to 52 (an index measured out of 100) in the first quarter of this year, a significant increase from 38 the quarter before. In contrast, the real estate and business services industries showed minimal business confidence growth in the same period.

The TBCSA FNB Tourism Index was introduced in 2010, and is based on a study of tourism confidence conducted quarterly by Grant Thornton. The Index is measured and compared against a score of 100 reflecting ‘normality’.  For the third consecutive reading the Tourism Business Index has exceeded the score of 100, a positive step given that most of the scores since 2010 lay below the 100 mark.  The latest index measurement is 111, just below that measured at the time our country hosted the World Cup, the highest score ever achieved, before the scores slid.  Respondents are asked to quantify their expectations for the quarter ahead, and the actual first quarter confidence score far exceeded the anticipated score of 102,5.

Grant Thornton’s Gillian Saunders said that the survey results were split, with 30% reporting strong demand and another 30% reporting it as weak. ‘Playing in different geographic markets may impact this; for instance in 2012, Asian markets saw a huge growth in tourist arrivals and businesses targeting those markets have no doubt benefited’. One hopes that Mrs Saunders is not referring to the SA Tourism statistics for China, which appear to include transit passengers!  More likely could be a geographical difference, in that Gauteng and Durban may have been more positive in the past quarter due to the AFCON Cup of Nations which took place in Johannesburg and Durban in January – February, while Cape Town missed out as a host city for the soccer event due to the City of Cape Town’s mismanagement of the bid process, and therefore Cape Town’s tourism industry may not have been as confident as a result!  Durban has hosted a number of top conferences and events, including a meeting of the BRICS country presidents, and an Indian tour operator conference.  Saunders emphasised that there is still concern about the impact of the recessionary problems of Europe.  While tourism confidence may have improved, the TBCSA CEO Mmatšatši Ramawela stated that the petrol price, cost of sales, electricity prices, municipal tariffs, and labour issues negated the confidence levels of tourism players.

Grant Thornton, the company that got the estimate of the World Cup 2010 attendance so badly wrong, is to conduct a three year study of the Cape Town tourism industry, to measure the value of its tourism industry. A 2009 survey had put a value of R17,3 billion on our City’s tourism industry, a 6% increase on the 2008 value of R16,3 billion.  The study results will become a benchmark to measure the economic value of Cape Town’s tourism industry, said Mayoral Committee member for Tourism, Events and Marketing Grant Pascoe. The study will use national data (read highly criticised) SA Tourism statistics and tourism surveys to measure the spend by tourists whilst in the city. Tourism businesses will be interviewed, to establish their turnover and employment figures.  One can be sceptical about the co-operation that the researchers will receive from the hospitality industry in extracting turnover figures!   Councillor Pascoe said that collecting the tourism industry information could be used to assess the infrastructure requirements for Cape Town, and could be used to motivate infrastructure upgrades to benefit the tourism industry!  One wonders how many millions the Grant Thornton Cape Town tourism study will cost, and how reliable its results will be, given the sensitive information sought!

Chris von Ulmenstein, Whale Cottage Portfolio:  www.whalecottage.com Twitter: WhaleCottage

Tourism Business confidence index reaches normality for first time!

For the first time since its introduction in 2010, the Tourism Business Council of South Africa FNB Tourism Business Index has reached its highest score and exceeded 100, the norm level, for the second time, with a score of 104 measured for the last quarter of 2012, a significant improvement on the 89 score at its inception two years prior.  Tourism business confidence for 2013 is forecast to be similar to 2012.

The Tourism Business Index (TBI) was introduced in the last quarter of 2010, and its 89 score, against the norm of 100, confirmed what we all knew, namely that the tourism industry was in serious trouble just three months after the 2010 World Cup. The lowest TBI was measured in the second quarter of 2011, with a score of 75, the tourism industry at that time operating at only 75 %  of its potential!  The latest score of 104, marginally up from the 101 measured in the third quarter of 2012, hints at a small upward movement in tourism business confidence.  The increased index was reported to come from the increase in domestic tourism, rather than from international tourist bookings.

Tourism Business Council of South Africa Chairman Mavuse Msimang commented on the most recent index, stating that ‘the latest index results provided relief for a sector that has been through two very tough years….. and is a clear indication of the extent to which business is recovering from the recessionary impact and excess of supply it suffered post the 2010 Soccer World Cup’.  One would have thought that it was the low demand rather than accommodation oversupply that has been responsible for the poor tourism performance in the past two years!

The Tourism Business Index is a national measure of current and future performance of the tourism and travel industry, and sub-sectors within the sector.

One hopes that the forthcoming winter will not be as devastating as the last two have been.  It is too early to forecast the winter performance.  Cape Town and the Western Cape are still experiencing summer seasonality, with two good weeks and two average weeks per month since October.  Only February looks close to fully booked, while March looks very quiet to date!  A TBI at around 100 only indicates that the tourism industry is still far from the good times it last experienced in 2007!

Chris von Ulmenstein, Whale Cottage Portfolio: www.whalecottage.com Twitter: @Whale Cottage

Tourism performance: why is tourism industry being misled?

Increasingly the tourism industry is seeing information that informs it about its successful performance, but this information does not tie in with actual business experience.

Yesterday on Twitter Guy Lundy, CEO of Accelerate Cape Town and Board member of Cape Town Tourism, created a PR gaffe (accommodation establishments make up a substantial proportion of Cape Town tourism members) by writing disparagingly:  ‘So if the airport & Table Mountain had a record December, why are the hotels crying? Because people want bargains & they’re too expensive’. When challenged on his statement, Lundy quoted the record 813000 arrivals at Cape Town International in December, and its best ever year in 2011, and the record Table Mountain Aerial Cableway 142000 ticket sales from mid-December – mid-January, attributing this success as follows: Positive legacy of 2010 World Cup; increased profile & awareness’. Few tourism businesses would agree with Lundy about the tourism benefit of the 2010 World Cup.

The Tourism Business Council of South Africa also described its 4th quarter Tourism Business Index of 87 as a ‘marked improvement in business performance for the last quarter of 2011’, correct relative to last year’s 3rd quarter (70), 2nd quarter (74,5), and 1st quarter (79) Index measurements.  What the Tourism Business Council media release neglected to point out is that the 4th quarter Index of 2011 is below that of the 4th quarter of 2010, which was at at 89.  The improved performance was attributed to the COP17 Climate Change Conference and the better than expected festive season.

The Tourism Business Index is sponsored by FNB, and compiled by Grant Thornton, the tourism consultancy that got the 2010 World Cup tourism estimates so badly wrong. Pieter de Bruin, Head of Industry Sales at FNB, said that the results showed that there are ‘different cycles in business, such is the importance of South Africa being an events destination and having a healthy domestic tourism market. We trust that this may be the first sign of the industry making a turn into positive territory’. Tourism Business Council CEO Mmatšatši Marobe commented: “When we launched the TBI (Tourism Business Index) project in 2010, one of the key objectives was to develop a business tool which would produce relevant information that will assist us to map out a clear picture of general ‘health’ our (sic) industry.  At this point the index is showing positive signs of progress; however it also highlights the important role that the domestic and regional markets can play in boosting tourism trade”.  The Tourism Business Index is a national measure of current and future performance of the tourism and travel industry, and sub-sectors within the sector. A score of 100 is the norm, reflecting that the tourism industry is still operating below par.  The industry has predicted an Index of 82 for the first quarter of 2012.

Durban bragged about its excellent performance over the past two years, claiming to have ‘outperformed other major SA cities’, reports The Mercury, due to the COP 17 Conference, achieving near 100 % occupancy for about a month, and the excellent local visitor numbers over the December school holidays, with hotel occupancy of around 80%, according to the local FEDHASA branch.

FEDHASA Cape Chairman Dirk Elzinga would not admit to a tourism crisis last winter, blaming the poor hospitality performance on the Cape scapegoat of Seasonality.  Eventually he had to admit that it was the worst season ever. Elzinga has deplored the cancellation of direct flights to Cape Town by Malaysia Airlines and Etihad Airways, stating that Cape Town’s tourism fortune is reliant on ‘direct access’.

Once again we would like to encourage the tourism authorities to be honest and realistic in reporting tourism successes, and to be correct in defining the summer season being from October, which showed poor performance with November too, and runs until April. The Cape is currently experiencing a ten-day dip, and yesterday’s J&B Met was the poorest ever for the hospitality industry.  Very encouraging is the almost fully-booked February, due to the Mining Conference taking place in Cape Town, as well as Valentine’s Day, with a welcome increase in British tourists too.

Chris von Ulmenstein, Whale Cottage Portfolio: www.whalecottage.com Twitter:@WhaleCottage