The Attraction Management in Southern Africa 2015 conference was held at Avenue, a newish event venue in the V&A Waterfront, at the beginning of this month.  I was particularly interested in the talk by Professor Albert Postma from The European Tourism Futures Intitute, and was grateful to Splash PR for allowing me to attend this particular talk.

Professor Postma spoke about the methodology of trend spotting, which his Institute uses in its work.

Professor Postma identified Maxi trends impacting on Tourism:

1.  The Aging society, which creates a different audience, one should plan already for the current young generation, becoming older, looking at the future through their eyes, being Generations Z and Y

2. Future of wealth and the recovery of world economies. Not everyone can pay for attractions, he warned.

3. Magic nostalgia : people want authentic experiences, and romanticize the past

4. Gameification of offers: travelers want the cheapest prices for travel, and attractions Younger people buy their travel products and services like that, treating it like a game, buying a choice or package that suits their needs and pockets.

5. New tourists, many coming from BRICS, countries. The middle class is fast becoming wealthy, and is increasingly coming to South Africa.

6. Accumulation of capital – it has become a sharing economy, not only in terms of facilities, but also in terms of information shared via Social Media.

7. Resource scarcity : this leads to a sustainability focus, not everything is available to everybody.

8. Different hats/roles in same person, different needs in same traveler. In Holland the patchwork family (your children, my children, and our children) is becoming more common, reunion bungalows being offered to accommodate 12-20 person families

9. Mobile society and emerging technologies: everything is going Touch screen, with persons spending lots of time online, a trend that applies to older people too.

11. Energy – new alternatives to oil are being sought.

12. Many items have become redundant – phone books, maps, fax machines, record and CD players. We also no longer call or write letters, having moved to short messages by e-mail, Sms, What’s App, and Social Media.

In conclusion Professor Postma said that projecting the past will not be likely to give one an accurate picture of the future!  He described Young people as ‘digital natives‘, who are digitally connected almost all the time! Older persons are referred to as ‘digital immigrants’. By 2030 – 2040 ‘man and machine will melt together‘, he said, each becoming more like the other!

At Professor Postma’s Institute they look at 2030 already, having to deal with an ‘unpredictable future‘, which will be largely driven by emerging technology cycles, coming and going. He spoke about developing ‘strategic insights’, which give ‘binoculars‘ to the future, generating scenarios to probably futures. At the Institute they start with environmental scanning, looking for demographic, social, economic, and technological trends. They then do a causal layered analysis, looking for patterns, and the critical uncertainties, which creates the scenarios. ‘What if’ questions are asked, and how the scenarios will affect one’s business. Scenarios are more qualitative, consisting of meanings and interpretations, and are less numbers based. They are an art to write, in making them appealing to readers, and they use pictures to make more the scenarios more lively. The strategic plan is then written, identifying strategic options. It is a continuous process, and involves all staff on the street, not just the top level. Foresight is needed, as is non- linear thinking, ‘one having to unlearn ‘paradigms‘, one having to step outside one’s own paradigm, to lead to out of box thinking.

Professor Postma shared a case study of a smaller Dutch attraction, which was facing difficult times., not having money to upgrade. The study found that animals are the most important element of an attraction. Four scenarios were developed, and plans were developed for all four of them, one not choosing only one. The possibility of each one of them is evaluated.

With the help of Sabine Lehmann, CEO of the Table Mountain Aerial Cableway Company and organizer of the Attractions Management conference, Professor Postma contacted the delegated who attended the year before. He ask two questions, to craft scenarios for Our local attractions: What are the most crucial elements in business in next 10 years, and what are the biggest uncertainties over the next 10 years.

The driving force for change in the next 10 years are a lack of interest, local economic wealth, negative international perceptions, financial instability, electricity shortages, problems with tourists from BRICS countries, low education level of staff with low skills, access restrictions due to new visa rules, and business development restrictions.

Two scenarios were developed, based on the feedback from the respondents: focus only on locals; or only attract the international market, which means attracting them via the beneficial exchange rate, and assure them about safety and security. An authentic African experience should be offered.

Ms Lehmann commented about the talk by Professor Postma as follows: ‘We were delighted to host Albert Postma at Attractions Africa. The insights gained will contribute to better planning at Attractions, as well as assist in creating visitor experiences that drive repeat business’.

Chris von Ulmenstein, Whale Cottage Portfolio: www.whalecottage.com  Tel (021) 433-2100, Twitter:@WhaleCottage  Facebook:  click here